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For Macron, the tactical threat of a dissolution of the National Assembly

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Dissolve the National Assembly? Emmanuel Macron has the scenario in mind. For a long time already. Even before his re-election in April, the possibility of using this prerogative of the head of state had touched the presidential camp. The idea, suggested by a few relatives, including the one who was still President of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand, was then to pronounce the dissolution of the latter the day after the second round, obliging to bring the dates of the presidential and legislative elections closer together, separated by more than a month and a half. Thus, the re-elected Head of State would, they thought, have taken advantage of the“blast effect” of the presidential election by guaranteeing a comfortable majority in the Assembly. Out of overconfidence, perhaps, or out of fear of giving the impression of using the institutions for political “tambouilles”, this scenario was finally dismissed by Emmanuel Macron.

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Seven months later, no one can say whether his caution at the time was beneficial. For the dissolution of the National Assembly still hovers in the atmosphere. More than ever. Now with a relative majority at the Palais-Bourbon, Emmanuel Macron knows that he may have to resort to it sooner or later. By fair means or foul. In the event of a blockage in Parliament, if a motion of censure were to be adopted, the government would be overthrown and the Head of State could, in the process, retaliate by pronouncing the dissolution.

“Returning to the polls can be a path”recognized the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, on the sidelines of a trip to Portugal at the end of October. “Matignon… we know when it starts but never when it will end”, she explains again, in an interview with Paris MatchNovember 3.

“It scares everyone”

Within the Hemicycle, not everyone takes the case with as much detachment. The hypothesis of a dissolution makes the deputies shudder. Apart from the far right with the National Rally (RN), or within the radical left among some representatives of La France insoumise (LFI), no one is considering the idea of ​​a return to the countryside with enthusiasm. “Ghosts scare everyone! »jokes François Patriat, elected representative of Côte-d’Or and leader of the macronists in the Senate.

A way of remembering that the last dissolution, in 1997, orchestrated by Jacques Chirac, ended in a fiasco for the right and had caused the cohabitation with the plural left of Lionel Jospin. If a dissolution took place tomorrow, there is no guarantee that the Macronist camp could consolidate its majority. And the current weakness of the so-called government parties, on the left and on the right, may raise fears of a rise in extremes.

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